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The impression he made when second first time up was confirmed at Leicester earlier this month, really taking the eye in moving powerfully and looking to have plenty left when pretty useful yardstick Highbank came to him. That he is turning out to be potentially smart is not a surprise, as he is a half-brother to Teal's Guineas runner-up Tip Two Win. He made his seasonal debut in this contest last year and was denied victory by a head, but the fact he is now rated 10lb lower suggests he can go one better.
Captain Cattistock is feared most ahead of Lord Accord, who should be sharper for his Worcester third over timber. William Haggas' six-year-old is well capable of mixing it with the best and gave the mighty Kyprios a real race in the Irish St Leger, after which he made no mistake as a short-priced favourite in the Cumberland Lodge at Ascot. It also stands out as a rematch of the dramatic clash between Knight Salute and Pied Piper from Aintree.
The pair originally dead-heated, but a stewards' inquiry rather surprisingly deemed interference caused by the Gordon Elliott -trained Pied Piper at the last had been sufficient to impact the result. Whatever the merit of that call, one thing beyond doubt is the sweet-travelling Pied Piper was not really seen to best effect and Davy Russell was furious with himself afterwards feeling he had gone too soon.
With that in mind, Jack Kennedy can be expected to be at pains to wait as long as he can before pressing the button. He had shaped as a smart prospect himself when returning to the fray from a lay-off at the Curragh in August, making it perfectly reasonable to try him in the National Stakes and, most recently, the Dewhurst. Although he came up short in those assignments, this Listed event represents much calmer waters and coming back to six furlongs will not do him any harm either.
In his favour is that he is racing as well as he has done in years. Fifth first-up over m with a big weight at Caulfield, he then stepped straight up to m and flew home for third — again under a huge impost of 61kg.
He finished off well again in the Group 3 Bart Cummings m , getting within a length of Lunar Flare, while he stuck on solidly in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup m from a wide gate. He now gets a good draw and should do no work in the run. So can he do it? Maybe not a strong chance, but the dream is alive for Young Werther and his connections.
Dismissing him as solely a Geelong maiden winner is unfair to a horse whose only appearance at the Melbourne Cup Carnival resulted in a third in the Group 1 Victoria Derby m. He has also placed three times at Group 1 level: second in the Group 1 ATC Derby m last year, when he was beaten by a nose, and then twice in the placings in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes m both last year and this year.
Good efforts in a m handicap and the Turnbull Stakes were followed by a somewhat average effort in the Cox Plate when he was outsprinted. Getting up in trip is necessary but the m remains a query. Throw in the prospect of a wet track and Young Werther looks one to oppose. As a son of Tavistock, you would expect him to handle that sort of ground but he looked to struggle at Moonee Valley on a shifty track and him at m on that ground would be a concern.
Whether Young Werther is the horse to give him a second, though, remains to be seen. Taking the ride is Damian Lane, who is yet to ride a Melbourne Cup winner although he has had some good mounts. He will certainly have his work cut out for him from barrier It is difficult to make a case for Young Werther. He looks one that is ripe to oppose and so I will be taking him on come Tuesday. And while he did finish second, Westover should have finished in front of him at the very least.
However, he looked like he was right on his limits at the end of that race with Deauville Legend clearly racing on by. Stepping up against proper opposition in the Group 1 English St Leger m , his stamina — or lack of it — was exposed and he weakened out.
While he was bought as a Cup horse, if Hoo Ya Mal were to have any chance, it would be back down in trip at m or thereabouts rather than up to a two-mile journey that looks completely unsuitable. Between them, they arguably shape as the most likely combination to land the Melbourne Cup. However, with significant stamina queries, it only makes sense to take Hoo Ya Mal on come Tuesday.
Fast forward to and a Derby winner from only two years ago now races as a gelding horrific, given geldings are not allowed to contest the Derby and races in the Antipodes, at least as far as Brits are concerned. Serpentine is a measure of how far the Derby has fallen as a race of relevance. Not only that, but Serpentine is actually the second Derby winner to contest a Melbourne Cup in the last three years. Again, horrific. However, he was disappointing at four and was gelded and sold to Australia.
Purchased by Lloyd Williams, whose name is synonymous with the Melbourne Cup, he showed very little in his first four runs down here. In fact, he only beat a total of seven horses home in his first four starts, primarily at the extended mile and a half. However, he was much improved on Saturday in the Group 3 Lexus Archer Stakes m getting blinkers on for the first time.
Drawn wide on Tuesday, jockey John Allen would be wise to follow a similar plan, crossing to lead at a solid tempo and trying to turn it into a strong staying test. It was the way that he won the Derby and it gives him his best chance of adding the Melbourne Cup. For jockey John Allen, he has ridden in three Melbourne Cups and has never finished closer than 15th.
Can he do better than that on Serpentine? Ride him too cute and he will finish closer to last than first. If he does attempt something wild, though, it could pay off in the best way possible. Can their luck improve with Daqiansweet Junior? A stakes performer in New Zealand for trainers Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman as a three-year-old, he joined Phillip Stokes at four and quickly found his feet. He put together five wins in six runs over the summer last year, progressing from a Benchmark 64 handicap over m at Pakenham in late November to taking the Group 2 Adelaide Cup m in March.
As a result, he will be aiming to become the first horse since the legendary Subzero 30 years ago to take the Adelaide Cup-Melbourne Cup double in the same calendar year. That preparation culminated with a third in the Group 1 Sydney Cup m on very testing ground.
That day, he carried the same weight as winner Knights Order; on Tuesday, he carries 2. This campaign, he has been treated with kid gloves but has improved with every run this time in. That was on a Good 3, ground on which he has not shown his best in the past, and the prospect of a wet track on Tuesday gives him a boost. However, it would still be a big effort for Daqiansweet Junior to take the prize off a run like that. Taking the ride is Daniel Moor, who takes part for the second time.
While he will stay better than most and will relish a likely wet track, it is hard on his current form to recommend him. For that reason, I will be taking him on come Tuesday. That came on the back of a solid winter campaign that saw him take out the Banjo Paterson Series Final m before landing his Golden Ticket in the Group 3 Bart Cummings m.
If it were to miraculously dry out ahead of Tuesday, then he would probably be able to live up to those expectations of this time last year. However, he has proven time and time again that he is simply not as effective on wet ground. He has ha four starts on soft and heavy tracks this campaign and has never looked likely in any of them. With that in mind, his effort to stick on for fourth in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Cup m last time out was decent under the circumstances.
It would be a fabulous story if Harry Coffey could land the Melbourne Cup given his much-documented battle with cystic fibrosis, while the horse obviously benefits from having Ciaron Maher and David Eustace in his corner. That is especially the case given he is a three-time winner at Flemington. However, with the weather forecast looking so ominous, he is one I am happy to let run around without me.
A Listed winner over m in France, he was tested more as a sprinter-miler last year through five unplaced runs in Sydney. Stepped up in trip this year, his began with a placed run in the Muswellbrook Cup m before finishing 15 lengths last in the Tamworth Cup m — not races one would traditionally associate with Melbourne Cup contenders. Those races were in April and he has been up and running since then — again, not something traditionally seen in a Melbourne Cup preparation.
However, he has kept improving throughout and looks to be holding his condition well. That initial run at the mile and a half proved a solid grounding for his next start, when he took out the Listed Grafton Cup m.
No Grafton Cup winner has run in the Melbourne Cup in the same year since Pacific Dancer in and no horse has completed the double since Kensei in He has since been placed in three of his four outings although comfortably beaten. However, he has established that he is a consistent type who is likely to earn prizemoney, making him a perfect bet for a Top 10 bet.
His trainer Bjorn Baker is yet to win the Melbourne Cup but with the stable he is establishing in Sydney he looks set to achieve what his father Murray — second in with The Phantom and fourth in with The Chosen One — could not. The English expat has quickly become a mainstay of the Sydney riding ranks and she has proven time and time again that she is adept at riding stayers in particular. It would be one of the biggest shocks in history if he managed to win, but even without him appealing as a winning chance, he could still be a value proposition in the right setting.
Few, though, are more desperate for a good track than Emissary. However, even if he did manage to get the trip there, two miles is an entirely different beast and on wet ground — on which he has been below his best in the past — it simply looks too tough. The Geelong Cup has been a good guide to the Melbourne Cup in recent years although the three horses to complete the double in the last two decades — Media Puzzle, Americain and Dunaden — were all internationals.
Still, it is rare that Geelong Cup winners run a poor race at Flemington. If it were a good track, I could probably find a spot for him even with his stamina queries but on testing ground I think he is one I have to oppose. Both of his Australian wins have come in stakes races this preparation, winning the Listed Heatherlie Handicap m at Caulfield in August before adding the Geelong Cup.
However, he has also run some top races outside that, including thirds in both the Group 3 Hotham Handicap m last year and third at weight-for-age in the Group 2 Peter Young Stakes m this year. Trainer Mike Moroney knows what it takes to win a Melbourne Cup, having prepared Brew and Second Coming to finish first and third in However, given the forecast, he is one that has to be opposed at the two miles.
That is, he was the son of a previous Melbourne Cup winner, with his sire Silver Knight victorious in On Tuesday, winner Fiorente has the opportunity to join that elite group when his daughter Lunar Flare heads out for the race that stops the nation. It was the culmination of a good preparation that began at Flemington in early July when she flew home for fourth in the Listed Winter Championship m.
While Francesco Guardi turned the tables in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last time out, racing away for a dominant success, Lunar Flare finished off well enough and she looks right on song for the Melbourne Cup. It would also be a slice of history for jockey Michael Dee, who will be looking to become the first rider to land the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup double on different horses since Neville Sellwood in While she may not be the classiest horse in here, she looks as though she will stay all day and she will get through the going whatever it will be.
She looks a strong chance to pick up prizemoney. Can she win? He has been a revelation this campaign — and he still appears so well weighted, too. He was something of a surprise winner of the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes m , defeating subsequent Listed Sale Cup m winner Uncle Bryn and his highly touted stablemate Gold Trip, before he certainly created a ripple in taking the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes m at Flemington.
In his wake were four Group 1 winners, as well as some of the most promising horses going around. In both the Naturalism and the Turnbull, it was his tactical speed and his ability to race handy that proved all the difference as others were unable to reel him in. Last time out in the Caulfield Cup, he just ended up in the wrong place from the draw and was down on inferior ground.
This time, expect to see him out wider, potentially being the first to challenge early in the straight — then it will just be a matter of whether he can hold them off over the final furlong. Will he see out two miles? While neither jockey nor trainer have won the race, it really does seem to be simply a matter of time before both the Victorian champion partnership of Ciaron Maher and David Eustace lands the prize; same with rider Jamie Kah.
You certainly gain plenty for having them in your camp. Everything has been geared towards getting him to this race and he looks to have had the right preparation to fire. While I have others shorter, given the value, he will be my on-top selection. Returning last spring in a rich vein of form, a trio of stakes placings in the Listed Heatherlie Handicap m , Group 3 Naturalism Stakes m and the Group 3 Bart Cummings m was followed by a win in the Group 3 Geelong Cup m.
However, it ruled her out of an autumn campaign and she only returned in early August. Tralee Rose has had a very unorthodox preparation, having two runs in August before not racing again until the Group 1 Caulfield Cup m. Backed in from into , she settled beyond midfield and made little impression late, performing as one would expect given her first two starts this preparation. On what she has shown this preparation, it is simply impossible to make a case for her when she has shown that two miles might be simply too far for her too.
However, Warrnambool trainer Symon Wilde is known as shrewd and it could prove to be a masterstroke on Tuesday, while jockey Dean Yendall is adept at partnering these sorts of horses. For both, it would be a first Melbourne Cup victory. Nevertheless, if Tralee Rose is winning, it will be without me. The lightly raced stayer, imported from Ireland as a Navan maiden winner from two starts,won three in a row in April and May, including the Listed Andrew Ramsden Stakes m that secured his spot into the Melbourne Cup.
He has been woeful though in two starts since, finding very little when beaten five lengths by subsequent Group 3 Bendigo Cup m winner High Emocean in a Flemington m quality in September before finishing second last as one of the first beaten in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes m on Caulfield Guineas Day. Is it simply a matter of keeping him out of sight, out of mind? Or has he genuinely not progressed since winning the Ramsden in May?
Unfortunately for those trying to read the race, it will only be a few minutes after 3pm on Tuesday that we will have a definitive answer. However, from everything I have seen, I have to oppose him. However, while she is racing so honestly, it looks a big step up for High Emocean at a distance which certainly looks to be at the upper limits of her stamina reserves. In , as a three-year-old, she put three wins together between m and m before taking out her first stakes victory in the Listed Harry White Classic m that year.
It was as good a display as she has put up in her career. While she finished midfield in the Group 3 Bart Cummings m two starts back, she was only beaten a length and a half by Lunar Flare — and she does meet her 1kg better here.
Last week she stepped out in the Group 3 Bendigo Cup m as favourite and managed to just hold off emerging talent Port Philip, winding up late. She also gets Teo Nugent aboard, who rode a tremendous race at his Melbourne Cup debut last year when fourth on Floating Artist. That said, on bare ratings, it is hard to get High Emocean any shorter than triple figures. She could run a bold race and earn some prizemoney, but it is hard to see her doing enough to win or place. To my eye, he is an emerging staying prospect who still looks to be 12 months away from his best.
He also pulled up lame after the Group 3 Geelong Cup m last time out and was perhaps in the worst going so you could make a case that he deserves to be forgiven. However, it does feel as though he is yet to justify the hype. In his corner are top-class trainers Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, who now have five horses in the race. He will also be ridden by Craig Newitt, one of the most experienced jockeys in the Cup field having participated 11 times previously.
However, there are times where you have to take a position and for me, he is one I would be keen to lay. This time around, connections have been left sweating as they have waited to see whether she would gain a start. However, the cards have fallen the right way for them and she has qualified for the feature.
In the spring, she was pretty plain in her first two runs before she made terrific ground for sixth in the Group 3 Bart Cummings m , a race that looked the ideal springboard for a Cup tilt.
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